Why is the future of space commerce uncertain under Trump?
Why is the future of space commerce uncertain under Trump?
By The Conversation | Published: 2025-10-27 10:00:00 | Source: Fast Company – technology
When I imagine the future of space commerce, the first image that comes to mind is a farmers market on the International Space Station. It doesn’t exist yet, but space commerce is a growing industry. the Space Foundationa nonprofit space education and advocacy organization, estimates that the global space economy will rise to $613 billion in 2024, an increase of nearly 8% from 2023, and 250 times larger than All businesses at farmers markets in the United States. This number includes launch vehicles, satellite devices and services provided by these space assets, such as satellite telephone or Internet connectivity.
Companies involved in spaceflight have been around since the beginning of the space age. By the 1980s, corporate space activity was gaining momentum. President Ronald Reagan saw the need for a federal agency to oversee and direct this industry Established the Office of Space Commerceor USC.
So what exactly does this office do and why is it important?
As a space scientistI’m interested in how the United States regulates commercial activities in space. In addition, I teach a course on space policy. In class we talk about the OSC and its role in the broader regulatory landscape that affects the commercial use of outer space.
OSC areas of focus
Space Trade Bureau, Office About 50 peopleis located within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the Department of Commerce. To paraphrase it Mission statementIts main purpose is to enable the United States to develop a strong commercial interest in outer space.
OSC has three main focus areas. First, it is the office responsible for licensing and monitoring how private American companies collect and distribute orbital images of the Earth. There are many companies launching satellites with special cameras to look at Earth these days. Companies offer a variety of data products and services ranging from these images, for example, to Improving the use of agricultural land.
The second primary mission of the OSC is space defense. OSC works with other US government agencies that also have jurisdiction over the commercial use of outer space to facilitate the regulatory environment. This includes working with Federal Aviation Administration On the launch license, and Federal Communications Commission On the use of radio wavelength, and Environmental Protection Agency On rules relating to hazardous chemicals in rocket fuel.
This function also includes coordination with other countries that allow companies to launch satellites, collect data in orbit, and provide space services.
In 2024, for example, the OSC helped revise the U.S. Export Administration Regulations, one of the key documents restricting the shipping of advanced technologies out of the country. This change Removed some restrictions, allowing US companies to export certain types of spacecraft to three countries: Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom.
The OSC also coordinates the flight paths of commercial satellites in near-Earth space, its third and largest function. Ministry of Defense Tracks Thousands of objects in outer space and issues alerts when the probability of collision is high. In 2018, President Donald Trump issued Space Policy Directive-3“, which included assigning the OSC to take on that role for non-government satellites — that is, those owned by companies, not NASA or the military. The Department of Defense wants to abandon the traffic management function involving privately owned satellites, and a 2018 Trump directive began the process of handing that task over to the OSC.
To prevent satellite collisions, OSC has developed Space traffic coordination systemKnown as TraCSS. It entered beta testing in 2024 and includes some of the companies with the largest business groups – e.g SpaceX’s StarlinkParticipation: Progress in this area has been slower than expected Audit in 2024 He revealed that the plan is behind schedule and may still be years away.
OSC raise
Deep within the text of Trump’s executive order on August 13, 2025, the executive order called for: Enabling competition in the commercial space industryThere is a directive to elevate the OSC to report directly to the Office of the Secretary of Commerce. This would make OSC equivalent to its current supervisor, NOAA, in terms of importance and priority within the Department of Commerce. It would give the OSC a higher profile in setting more rules regarding commercial use of space, and would make space commerce more visible across the broader economy.
So why did Trump include this line about lifting the OSC in his August 13 executive order?
In 2018, Trump issued Space Policy Directive-2 During his first term, which included the task of creating the Space Policy Advanced Commercial Enterprise Administration, or SPACE. SPACE would have been an entity reporting directly to the Secretary of Commerce. Although it was proposed as a bill in the House of Representatives later that year, it never became law.
The Aug. 13 executive order essentially directs the Commerce Department to take this step now. If the Secretary of Commerce issues this order, he will bypass Congress’ role in strengthening the OSC. The 60-day window Trump put in the executive order to make this change has closed, but with the government shut down, it’s unclear whether lifting the OSC might happen.
Problems for OSC
While this all sounds good for promoting space as a place for commercial activity, the OSC will be under pressure in 2025. In February, the government’s Department of Efficiency targeted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for cuts, including Eight people were shot From OSC. Since about half of the people working at OSC are contractors, this represented a 30% reduction in force.
In March, Trump’s presidential budget request for fiscal year 2026 proposed a cut 85% From the annual budget of 65 million US dollars. In July, space industry leaders Congress urged To restore funding to OSC.
The August 13 executive order appears to have been good news for the OSC. However, on September 9, Bloomberg reported that the Commerce Department had requested it 40% cancellation For the OSC budget for fiscal year 2025.
The repeals are a “clawback” of funds already approved and appropriated by Congress. Promised funding has essentially been put on hold. Once a repeal is proposed by the president, it must be voted on by both chambers of Congress in order to take effect. This must be done within 45 days, or before the end of the fiscal year, which was September 30.
This rescission request is so close to the deadline that Congress has not moved to stop it. As a result, OSC lost this funding. The loss could mean additional staff reductions and perhaps even a reduction in its focus areas.
Will the OSC be lifted? Will OSC be restructured or even dismantled? The future remains uncertain for this office.
Michael Lemon He is a professor of climate and space science and engineering at the University of University of Michigan.
This article was republished from Conversation Under Creative Commons license. Read Original article.
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