With earnings, Microsoft reaches $4 trillion again after reaching OpenAI deal

With earnings, Microsoft reaches $4 trillion again after reaching OpenAI deal

By Todd Bishop | Published: 2025-10-29 15:33:00 | Source: GeekWire

With a new OpenAI partnership in hand, Microsoft will go into its earnings report Wednesday afternoon with a solution to one of the biggest questions about its business.

The company’s market cap hit $4 trillion again as Wall Street reacted to details of the new Microsoft-OpenAI agreement, which gives Microsoft a 27% stake in the new for-profit OpenAI entity, and a commitment of $250 billion in cloud buyouts by the maker of ChatGPT.

Analysts expect the tech giant to report another strong quarter, driven primarily by continued momentum in its Azure cloud business and growing adoption of its Copilot AI tools.

Quarterly revenue is expected to reach about $75.4 billion for the first quarter of Microsoft’s 2026 fiscal year, which ended on September 30, according to Microsoft. Numbers tracked by Yahoo Finance. This represents a 15% jump compared to the $65.6 billion recorded in the same period last year.

Analysts expect EPS to be $3.66, up about 11% year-over-year from $3.30.

Investors will be paying close attention to the growth rate of Microsoft’s Azure cloud business, with some analysts predicting growth of up to 39% (in constant currency, excluding the impact of exchange rates). Reaching this mark would exceed the company’s previous guidance and maintain the 39% growth pace set in the previous quarter.

However, the potential for an AI bubble will undoubtedly be the focus of questions on the company’s earnings conference call. Amid rising investment and rising valuations in the AI ​​sector, some analysts and technology leaders warn that enthusiasm may outpace business realities.

Both Microsoft and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, will report the numbers Wednesday afternoon, and Amazon the next day, for quick comparisons across major cloud platforms.

As of its most recent quarter, ending in June, Microsoft reported more than $75 billion in annual Azure revenue for the fiscal year just ended, compared to an annual run rate of more than $50 billion for Google Cloud and a roughly $124 billion run rate for Amazon Web Services (based on its revenue of $30.9 billion in the June quarter).

Check back with GeekWire Wednesday afternoon for full coverage.

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